。

抢你妹

96L INVEST 201030 0000 12.0N 78.0W ATL 15 1009

定位修正，确认为加勒比东侧系统AL, 96, 2020103000, , BEST, 0, 123N, 622W, 20, 1008, DB, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1009, 100, 90, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, S, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 063, SPAWNINVEST, al712020 to al962020,

未来的Eta

1. A large area of disturbed weather in the vicinity of the Lesser Antilles is associated with a tropical wave. Upper-level winds are expected to become more conducive for development of this disturbance during the next few days, and a tropical depression is likely to form by the time the system reaches the western Caribbean Sea early next week.* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.30/70

η准备。

GFS上望959

加勒比海真命天子，gfs报出过美东北上，古巴，波多黎各，出口东太，强度从934-1003不等，试看96L能否为今年的北半球加冕了！

西行，之后东折，然后分裂成3个系统，最东边分裂出去的系统把原来的那个吃了

1. Shower activity associated with a large area of disturbed weather over the Lesser Antilles and the eastern Caribbean Sea has become a little more concentrated this evening. Conditions are expected to be conducive for development of this disturbance during the next few days, and a tropical depression is likely to form by the time the system reaches the western Caribbean Sea early next week.* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent.

环境还算不错

要求不高 脱水就好

升high1. Shower activity continues to become better organized in association with a tropical wave located over the eastern Caribbean Sea. Conditions are conducive for further development of this system, and a tropical depression is likely to form this weekend or early next week as the system moves into the central and western Caribbean Sea. * Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent.

96L INVEST 201030 0600 13.2N 62.7W ATL 25 1007

有观测记录以来北大第一个命名η的tc,西行进入东太再到中太苟至西太……

96L INVEST 201030 1200 13.3N 63.8W ATL 25 1007

有几条线上望950-

有一定的风切

96L INVEST 201030 1800 14.2N 67.2W ATL 25 1007

1. A tropical wave located over the eastern Caribbean Sea is producing a concentrated area of showers and thunderstorms. This system is slowly becoming better organized, and conditions appear conducive for further development. A tropical depression is likely to form this weekend as the system moves westward across the central and western Caribbean Sea. Regardless of development, this system is expected to produce heavy rainfall across portions of the ABC islands and Jamaica through the weekend. * Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.